US 2020 elections, incorporating incoming live results into opinion-poll estimated probabilities. A meaningful way to smoothly transition from estimates to actuals. Last updated 04 November 2020.
| Called / Solid | Likely | Ahead / Lean | Too close / Toss-up | Ahead / Lean | Likely | Called / Solid | |
| President | 279 | 279 | 306 | 0 | 232 | 217 | 217 |
| Senate | 50 | 50 | 50 | 0 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| House | DEM |
| Democrat | Republican |
President
States by win likelihood as forecast by 538. Race classification by Cook Political Report. UVN (Undecided Voters Needed) calculates which percentage of undecided / third-party voters a candidate needs to reach 50% of the vote (note: 50% vote share is not a requirement, simple majority suffices.)
States in play:
| State Prob EV Polls ..D/R UVN | Dem >85% 220 |
95% 236 -8.0 51/43 |
94% 246 -8.4 52/44 |
90% 248 -13.0 53/40 |
89% 252 -11.1 54/43 |
88% 258 -5.3 50/44 5.1% |
84% 278 -4.6 50/46 |
72% 279 -3.8 50/46 0.0% |
69% 308 -2.5 49/47 20.9% |
68% 319 -2.6 49/46 25.0% |
64% 334 -1.8 49/47 27.5% |
58% 350 -1.1 49/47 36.6% |
57% 351 -2.8 49/46 19.6% |
55% 187 +0.7 47/48 43.9% |
60% 169 +1.3 46/48 39.3% |
62% 163 +1.2 47/49 35.0% |
82% 125 +4.4 45/50 4.2% |
85% 122 +7.6 44/51 |
Rep >85% 119 |
All states:
| State | 538 Prob | Rating | Cum. EV | Polls | Dem | Rep | UVN |
| District of Columbia | 100% | D-called | 3 | -85.0 | 90.8 | 5.8 | |
| Delaware | 100% | D-called | 6 | -24.3 | 58.9 | 34.6 | |
| New York | 100% | D-called | 35 | -29.4 | 62.3 | 32.9 | |
| Maryland | 100% | D-called | 45 | -31.5 | 63.1 | 31.6 | |
| Massachusetts | 100% | D-called | 56 | -35.7 | 64.6 | 28.9 | |
| Illinois | 100% | D-called | 76 | -16.0 | 55.0 | 39.0 | |
| Connecticut | 100% | D-called | 83 | -26.2 | 58.6 | 32.4 | |
| Rhode Island | 100% | D-called | 87 | -30.5 | 62.9 | 32.4 | |
| California | 100% | D-called | 142 | -29.2 | 61.6 | 32.4 | |
| Vermont | 100% | D-called | 145 | -38.7 | 66.5 | 27.8 | |
| Hawaii | 99% | D-called | 149 | -34.3 | 64.3 | 30.0 | |
| New Jersey | 99% | D-called | 163 | -20.5 | 58.4 | 37.9 | |
| Washington | 99% | D-called | 175 | -23.0 | 59.4 | 36.4 | |
| Virginia | 99% | D-called | 188 | -11.8 | 53.7 | 41.9 | |
| Oregon | 98% | D-called | 195 | -21.3 | 58.7 | 37.4 | |
| New Mexico | 98% | D-called | 200 | -11.8 | 53.9 | 42.1 | |
| ME-1 | 97% | D-called | 201 | -20.5 | 57.6 | 37.1 | |
| Colorado | 97% | D-called | 210 | -12.5 | 53.6 | 41.1 | |
| Minnesota | 96% | D-called | 220 | -9.1 | 51.8 | 42.7 | |
| Michigan | 95% | D-called | 236 | -8.0 | 51.2 | 43.2 | |
| Wisconsin | 94% | D-called | 246 | -8.4 | 52.1 | 43.7 | |
| Maine | 90% | D-called | 248 | -13.0 | 53.3 | 40.3 | |
| New Hampshire | 89% | D-called | 252 | -11.1 | 53.9 | 42.8 | |
| Nevada | 88% | D-called | 258 | -5.3 | 49.7 | 44.4 | 5.1% |
| Pennsylvania | 84% | D-called | 278 | -4.6 | 50.2 | 45.6 | |
| NE-2 | 72% | D-called | 279 | -3.8 | 50.0 | 46.2 | 0.0% |
| Florida | 69% | R-called | 308 | -2.5 | 49.1 | 46.6 | 20.9% |
| Arizona | 68% | D-ahead | 319 | -2.6 | 48.7 | 46.1 | 25.0% |
| North Carolina | 64% | R-ahead | 334 | -1.8 | 48.9 | 47.1 | 27.5% |
| Georgia | 58% | D-ahead | 350 | -1.1 | 48.5 | 47.4 | 36.6% |
| ME-2 | 57% | R-called | 351 | -2.8 | 49.1 | 46.3 | 19.6% |
| Ohio | 55% | R-called | 187 | +0.7 | 46.8 | 47.5 | 43.9% |
| Iowa | 60% | R-called | 169 | +1.3 | 46.3 | 47.6 | 39.3% |
| Texas | 62% | R-called | 163 | +1.2 | 47.4 | 48.6 | 35.0% |
| Montana | 82% | R-called | 125 | +4.4 | 45.4 | 49.8 | 4.2% |
| Alaska | 85% | R-called | 122 | +7.6 | 43.6 | 51.2 | |
| South Carolina | 90% | R-called | 119 | +7.1 | 44.5 | 51.6 | |
| Mississippi | 92% | R-called | 110 | +15.9 | 39.6 | 55.5 | |
| Missouri | 94% | R-called | 104 | +8.0 | 43.6 | 51.6 | |
| South Dakota | 95% | R-called | 94 | +15.5 | 39.0 | 54.5 | |
| Utah | 95% | R-called | 91 | +9.8 | 42.1 | 51.9 | |
| NE-1 | 96% | R-called | 85 | +5.0 | 45.8 | 50.8 | |
| Indiana | 96% | R-called | 84 | +10.9 | 42.0 | 52.9 | |
| Tennessee | 97% | R-called | 73 | +13.7 | 41.4 | 55.1 | |
| Louisiana | 97% | R-called | 62 | +20.5 | 37.1 | 57.6 | |
| North Dakota | 98% | R-called | 54 | +17.3 | 38.7 | 56.0 | |
| Alabama | 98% | R-called | 51 | +19.6 | 37.8 | 57.4 | |
| Kansas | 99% | R-called | 42 | +12.9 | 41.0 | 53.9 | |
| Kentucky | 99% | R-called | 36 | +15.7 | 39.9 | 55.6 | |
| Arkansas | 99% | R-called | 28 | +22.7 | 36.2 | 58.9 | |
| West Virginia | 99% | R-called | 22 | +28.6 | 33.5 | 62.1 | |
| Oklahoma | 99% | R-called | 17 | +23.0 | 36.2 | 59.2 | |
| Nebraska | 99% | R-called | 10 | +9.6 | 42.5 | 52.1 | |
| Idaho | 99% | R-called | 8 | +18.1 | 38.5 | 56.6 | |
| Wyoming | 100% | R-called | 4 | +31.5 | 30.8 | 62.3 | |
| NE-3 | 100% | R-called | 1 | +47.1 | 25.4 | 72.5 |
Senate
Race classification by Cook Political Report, win probabilities by 538. Majority: 51 (50 for party holding presidency). Results as of election night.
States in Play:
| State Prob Seats | Dem >85% 44 |
91% 45 |
87% 46 |
84% 47 |
83% 48 |
78% 49 |
74% 50 |
70% 51 |
50% 52 |
51% 48 |
64% 47 |
70% 46 |
73% 45 |
74% 44 |
79% 43 |
84% 42 |
Rep >85% 41 |
All States:
| State | 538 Prob | Cook Political | Cum. Seats | Polls | Dem | Rep | UVN |
| D-cont | 100% | D-called | 35 | ||||
| MA | 100% | D-called | 36 | ||||
| IL | 100% | D-called | 37 | ||||
| RI | 100% | D-called | 38 | ||||
| NJ | 100% | D-called | 39 | ||||
| DE | 99% | D-called | 40 | ||||
| VA | 99% | D-called | 41 | ||||
| NH | 98% | D-called | 42 | ||||
| OR | 97% | D-called | 43 | ||||
| MN | 91% | D-called | 44 | ||||
| MI | 91% | D-called | 45 | ||||
| CO | 87% | D-called | 46 | ||||
| AZ | 84% | D-called | 47 | ||||
| NM | 83% | D-called | 48 | ||||
| GA2 | 78% | Too close | 49 | ||||
| NC | 74% | R-ahead | 50 | ||||
| ME | 70% | R-called | 51 | ||||
| IA | 50% | R-called | 52 | ||||
| GA1 | 51% | R-ahead | 48 | ||||
| MT | 64% | R-called | 47 | ||||
| AK | 70% | R-ahead | 46 | ||||
| SC | 73% | R-called | 45 | ||||
| KS | 74% | R-called | 44 | ||||
| MS | 79% | R-called | 43 | ||||
| TX | 84% | R-called | 42 | ||||
| KY | 91% | R-called | 41 | ||||
| LA | 93% | R-called | 40 | ||||
| SD | 94% | R-called | 39 | ||||
| AL | 96% | R-called | 38 | ||||
| WV | 96% | R-called | 37 | ||||
| OK | 98% | R-called | 36 | ||||
| ID | 98% | R-called | 35 | ||||
| TN | 98% | R-called | 34 | ||||
| NE | 99% | R-called | 33 | ||||
| WY | 99% | R-called | 32 | ||||
| AR | 100% | R-called | 31 | ||||
| R-cont | 100% | R-called | 30 |
House (not updated with results)
Race classification and probabilities by 538. Majority 218.
“| Called / Solid | Likely | Ahead / Lean | Too close / Toss-Up | Ahead / Lean | Likely | Called / Solid |
| 187 seats | 220 seats | 231 seats | – seats | 184 seats | 164 seats | 112 seats |
| 187 seats | 33 seats | 11 seats | 20 seats | 20 seats | 52 seats | 112 seats |
| WA-10 100% (1) | WA-7 100% (2) | AL-7 100% (3) | CA-12 100% (4) | CA-13 100% (5) | ||||
| CA-14 100% (6) | CA-18 100% (7) | CA-29 100% (8) | CA-34 100% (9) | CA-37 100% (10) | ||||
| CA-38 100% (11) | CA-40 100% (12) | CA-43 100% (13) | CA-44 100% (14) | CA-53 100% (15) | ||||
| FL-20 100% (16) | FL-24 100% (17) | GA-4 100% (18) | GA-5 100% (19) | IL-2 100% (20) | ||||
| IL-4 100% (21) | IL-7 100% (22) | LA-2 100% (23) | MA-3 100% (24) | MA-7 100% (25) | ||||
| MA-8 100% (26) | MD-4 100% (27) | MD-7 100% (28) | MI-13 100% (29) | MI-14 100% (30) | ||||
| MN-5 100% (31) | NJ-10 100% (32) | NY-10 100% (33) | NY-12 100% (34) | NY-13 100% (35) | ||||
| NY-14 100% (36) | NY-15 100% (37) | NY-5 100% (38) | NY-7 100% (39) | NY-8 100% (40) | ||||
| NY-9 100% (41) | OH-11 100% (42) | PA-2 100% (43) | PA-3 100% (44) | RI-1 100% (45) | ||||
| TN-5 100% (46) | TN-9 100% (47) | TX-30 100% (48) | TX-9 100% (49) | TX-18 100% (50) | ||||
| WA-9 100% (51) | CA-51 100% (52) | WI-4 100% (53) | TX-33 100% (54) | CA-20 100% (55) | ||||
| IL-1 100% (56) | CA-28 100% (57) | CA-5 100% (58) | NJ-8 100% (59) | CA-19 100% (60) | ||||
| CA-6 100% (61) | AZ-7 100% (62) | OR-3 100% (63) | VA-8 Called (64) | MO-1 100% (65) | ||||
| GA-13 100% (66) | OH-3 100% (67) | CA-2 100% (68) | CA-17 100% (69) | IL-9 100% (70) | ||||
| CA-30 100% (71) | NC-12 100% (72) | IL-5 100% (73) | VA-3 100% (74) | NY-16 100% (75) | ||||
| CA-15 100% (76) | SC-6 100% (77) | CO-1 100% (78) | CA-11 100% (79) | MA-1 100% (80) | ||||
| IL-8 100% (81) | NJ-12 100% (82) | VA-11 100% (83) | MA-5 100% (84) | TX-29 100% (85) | ||||
| CA-35 100% (86) | HI-1 100% (87) | MD-8 100% (88) | CA-32 100% (89) | WI-2 100% (90) | ||||
| NY-6 100% (91) | NV-1 100% (92) | CA-46 100% (93) | NC-4 100% (94) | CA-33 100% (95) | ||||
| MS-2 100% (96) | HI-2 100% (97) | MI-12 100% (98) | TX-16 100% (99) | PA-5 100% (100) | ||||
| MD-5 100% (101) | CA-27 100% (102) | NJ-9 100% (103) | TX-35 100% (104) | CA-47 100% (105) | ||||
| MN-4 100% (106) | OH-9 100% (107) | MD-3 100% (108) | PA-18 100% (109) | VA-4 100% (110) | ||||
| WA-2 100% (111) | NJ-1 100% (112) | AZ-3 100% (113) | FL-5 100% (114) | FL-10 100% (115) | ||||
| IN-7 100% (116) | MD-2 100% (117) | NC-2 100% (118) | IL-10 100% (119) | CA-41 100% (120) | ||||
| CT-1 100% (121) | FL-23 100% (122) | KY-3 100% (123) | NC-6 100% (124) | NY-26 100% (125) | ||||
| VT-1 100% (126) | TX-20 100% (127) | IL-11 100% (128) | OR-1 100% (129) | NY-25 100% (130) | ||||
| NY-17 100% (131) | CO-2 100% (132) | WA-1 100% (133) | PA-4 100% (134) | MA-2 100% (135) | ||||
| CA-16 100% (136) | CT-4 100% (137) | TX-34 100% (138) | MA-4 100% (139) | FL-21 100% (140) | ||||
| CT-3 100% (141) | CA-52 100% (142) | NC-1 100% (143) | RI-2 100% (144) | NY-20 100% (145) | ||||
| NJ-6 100% (146) | TX-28 99% (147) | CA-9 99% (148) | CA-31 99% (149) | CA-24 99% (150) | ||||
| FL-14 99% (151) | WA-6 99% (152) | CA-26 99% (153) | MD-6 99% (154) | ME-1 99% (155) | ||||
| MA-6 99% (156) | IN-1 99% (157) | AZ-9 99% (158) | MO-5 99% (159) | MI-5 99% (160) | ||||
| DE-1 99% (161) | MI-9 99% (162) | OH-13 99% (163) | TX-15 99% (164) | FL-22 99% (165) | ||||
| GA-2 99% (166) | NM-1 99% (167) | NY-4 99% (168) | NM-3 99% (169) | CA-3 99% (170) | ||||
| FL-9 98% (171) | CO-7 98% (172) | MA-9 98% (173) | PA-6 98% (174) | CA-7 97% (175) | ||||
| MN-3 97% (176) | VA-10 97% (177) | CA-49 97% (178) | NV-4 96% (179) | CO-6 96% (180) | ||||
| FL-13 96% (181) | WA-8 96% (182) | CA-36 96% (183) | ME-2 96% (184) | CT-2 95% (185) | ||||
| AZ-2 95% (186) | PA-7 95% (187) | OR-5 94% (188) | FL-7 94% (189) | CT-5 94% (190) | ||||
| KS-3 93% (191) | NH-2 92% (192) | OR-4 91% (193) | CA-10 91% (194) | NY-3 90% (195) | ||||
| AZ-1 90% (196) | MI-11 89% (197) | IL-17 89% (198) | NV-3 89% (199) | VA-7 88% (200) | ||||
| NY-18 88% (201) | IA-3 88% (202) | MN-2 87% (203) | CA-45 87% (204) | MI-8 87% (205) | ||||
| IA-1 87% (206) | IL-3 87% (207) | NY-19 86% (208) | WI-3 86% (209) | IA-2 84% (210) | ||||
| NJ-5 82% (211) | PA-17 82% (212) | CA-48 82% (213) | FL-26 81% (214) | NJ-11 80% (215) | ||||
| TX-32 79% (216) | PA-8 79% (217) | FL-27 78% (218) | VA-2 78% (219) | CA-39 76% (220) | ||||
| NJ-3 72% (221) | NY-22 71% (222) | CA-21 70% (223) | NY-2 69% (224) | TX-23 68% (225) | ||||
| NJ-7 68% (226) | IL-14 68% (227) | TX-7 67% (228) | NH-1 66% (229) | IL-6 65% (230) | ||||
| SC-1 62% (231) | NJ-2 57% (232) | PA-10 55% (233) | GA-6 54% (234) | IN-5 50% (201) | ||||
| UT-4 51% (200) | TX-24 51% (199) | CA-25 52% (198) | AZ-6 53% (197) | VA-5 53% (196) | ||||
| OK-5 54% (195) | MI-3 54% (194) | NY-24 55% (193) | MI-6 55% (192) | AR-2 56% (191) | ||||
| NM-2 56% (190) | IL-13 56% (189) | TX-22 56% (188) | KY-6 58% (187) | NC-8 59% (186) | ||||
| NY-11 59% (185) | NE-2 60% (184) | GA-7 61% (183) | CO-3 61% (182) | MT-1 63% (181) | ||||
| OH-1 64% (180) | NC-11 64% (179) | VA-1 64% (178) | MO-2 65% (177) | AK-1 65% (176) | ||||
| MN-1 66% (175) | WA-3 66% (174) | NC-9 67% (173) | NY-21 67% (172) | FL-18 71% (171) | ||||
| TX-21 72% (170) | MI-7 73% (169) | MN-8 73% (168) | NY-1 74% (167) | OH-10 74% (166) | ||||
| KS-2 74% (165) | WA-5 75% (164) | CA-8 77% (163) | MN-7 77% (162) | OH-14 78% (161) | ||||
| PA-1 78% (160) | TX-3 79% (159) | TX-10 79% (158) | OH-12 79% (157) | FL-15 80% (156) | ||||
| TX-17 80% (155) | TX-25 80% (154) | CA-22 81% (153) | FL-16 82% (152) | TX-6 83% (151) | ||||
| NV-2 83% (150) | CA-4 83% (149) | FL-3 84% (148) | OH-15 84% (147) | IL-12 85% (146) | ||||
| TX-31 85% (145) | MI-1 85% (144) | CA-1 86% (143) | WI-1 86% (142) | PA-16 86% (141) | ||||
| MI-2 86% (140) | OR-2 87% (139) | NY-23 88% (138) | IA-4 88% (137) | NY-27 89% (136) | ||||
| MI-4 89% (135) | OH-16 89% (134) | CA-50 89% (133) | CA-42 90% (132) | OH-2 90% (131) | ||||
| NC-7 90% (130) | SC-7 91% (129) | NJ-4 91% (128) | MI-10 91% (127) | SC-5 91% (126) | ||||
| WI-8 92% (125) | LA-5 92% (124) | IL-16 92% (123) | WI-6 92% (122) | FL-6 93% (121) | ||||
| WI-7 93% (120) | TX-2 93% (119) | UT-2 93% (118) | KS-4 94% (117) | VA-6 94% (116) | ||||
| FL-12 94% (115) | WA-4 94% (114) | SC-2 94% (113) | GA-1 95% (112) | MS-3 95% (111) | ||||
| LA-4 95% (110) | NC-3 95% (109) | FL-19 95% (108) | WI-5 95% (107) | GA-12 95% (106) | ||||
| NE-1 95% (105) | IN-2 95% (104) | AL-1 96% (103) | OH-5 96% (102) | AL-2 97% (101) | ||||
| TX-14 97% (100) | FL-8 97% (99) | MN-6 97% (98) | AZ-8 97% (97) | AZ-5 98% (96) | ||||
| IN-9 98% (95) | CO-4 98% (94) | OH-7 98% (93) | UT-1 98% (92) | WV-2 98% (91) | ||||
| CA-23 98% (90) | CO-5 98% (89) | PA-11 98% (88) | UT-3 99% (87) | PA-14 99% (86) | ||||
| MS-1 99% (85) | FL-17 99% (84) | ID-2 99% (83) | AR-4 99% (82) | TX-27 99% (81) | ||||
| SC-4 99% (80) | FL-4 99% (79) | OH-4 99% (78) | IN-8 99% (77) | AL-3 99% (76) | ||||
| MD-1 99% (75) | PA-9 99% (74) | KY-4 99% (73) | IL-18 99% (72) | WV-1 99% (71) | ||||
| AR-3 99% (70) | KY-2 99% (69) | NC-5 99% (68) | IN-4 99% (67) | MO-6 99% (66) | ||||
| TX-5 100% (65) | GA-10 100% (64) | OK-4 100% (63) | ND-1 100% (62) | KS-1 100% (61) | ||||
| OH-6 100% (60) | FL-11 100% (59) | IN-3 100% (58) | PA-12 100% (57) | TX-26 100% (56) | ||||
| GA-8 100% (55) | IN-6 100% (54) | NC-13 100% (53) | NC-10 100% (52) | OH-8 100% (51) | ||||
| MO-4 100% (50) | LA-6 100% (49) | GA-11 100% (48) | WY-1 100% (47) | OK-1 100% (46) | ||||
| TN-8 100% (45) | TN-3 100% (44) | TX-12 100% (43) | WV-3 100% (42) | SC-3 100% (41) | ||||
| PA-15 100% (40) | ID-1 100% (39) | KY-1 100% (38) | IL-15 100% (37) | MO-3 100% (36) | ||||
| TN-2 100% (35) | GA-3 100% (34) | TN-4 100% (33) | TN-7 100% (32) | AZ-4 100% (31) | ||||
| OK-2 100% (30) | FL-1 100% (29) | LA-3 100% (28) | PA-13 100% (27) | LA-1 100% (26) | ||||
| TN-6 100% (25) | MO-7 100% (24) | TX-4 100% (23) | OK-3 100% (22) | TN-1 100% (21) | ||||
| MO-8 100% (20) | GA-14 100% (19) | TX-1 100% (18) | TX-36 100% (17) | KY-5 100% (16) | ||||
| NE-3 100% (15) | SD-1 100% (14) | TX-8 100% (13) | TX-11 100% (12) | AL-4 100% (11) | ||||
| TX-19 100% (10) | FL-2 100% (9) | GA-9 100% (8) | TX-13 100% (7) | VA-9 100% (6) | ||||
| AL-6 100% (5) | AL-5 100% (4) | AR-1 100% (3) | FL-25 100% (2) | MS-4 Called (1) |