Soccer World Cup 2022

Win probabilities (in %) based on current ELO ratings (www.eloratings.net). Predicted outcome of group stage matches based on those probabilties.

Group Stage

Team 1Team 2Actual/PredictionPointsGoals
GROUP A
QatarEcuador02
NetherlandsSenegal20
QatarSenegal13
NetherlandsEcuador11
NetherlandsQatar20
EcuadorSenegal12
Netherlands7+4
Senegal6+1
Ecuador4+1
Qatar0-6
GROUP B
EnglandIran62
United StatesWales11
WalesIran02
EnglandUnited States00
WalesEngland03
IranUnited States01
England7+7
United States5+1
Iran3-3
Wales1-5
GROUP C
ArgentinaSaudi Arabia12
MexicoPoland00
PolandSaudi Arabia20
ArgentinaMexico20
PolandArgentina19%81%win by 1
Saudi ArabiaMexico32%68%win by 1
Argentina6+2
Poland4+1
Mexico4-1
Saudi Arabia3-2
GROUP D
DenmarkTunisia00
FranceAustralia41
TunisiaAustralia01
FranceDenmark21
TunisiaFrance12%88%win by 2
AustraliaDenmark25%75%win by 1
France9+6
Denmark40
Australia3-3
Tunisia1-3
GROUP E
GermanyJapan12
SpainCosta Rica70
JapanCosta Rica01
SpainGermany11
JapanSpain18%82%win by 1
Costa RicaGermany27%73%win by 1
Spain7+8
Germany40
Japan3-1
Costa Rica3-7
GROUP F
MoroccoCroatia00
BelgiumCanada10
BelgiumMorocco02
CroatiaCanada41
CroatiaBelgium50%50%draw
CanadaMorocco34%66%win by 1
Morocco7+3
Croatia5+3
Belgium4-1
Canada0-5
GROUP G
SwitzerlandCameroon10
BrazilSerbia20
CameroonSerbia33
BrazilSwitzerland10
CameroonBrazil4%96%win by 3
SerbiaSwitzerland44%56%draw
Brazil9+6
Switzerland40
Serbia2-2
Cameroon1-4
GROUP H
UruguaySouth Korea00
PortugalGhana32
South KoreaGhana23
PortugalUruguay20
South KoreaPortugal16%84%win by 2
GhanaUruguay17%83%win by 1
Portugal9+5
Uruguay4-1
Ghana3-1
South Korea1-3

Second stage:

Netherlands 77%
United States 23% |
| Netherlands 42%
| Argentina 58% |
Argentina 73% | |
Denmark 27% |
| Argentina 37%
| Brazil 63% |
Spain 65% | |
Croatia 35% | | |
| Spain 31% | |
| Brazil 69% |
Brazil 85% | |
Uruguay 15% |
| Brazil 70%
| France 30%
France 76% |
Poland 24% | |
| France 61% |
| England 39% | |
England 68% | | |
Ecuador 32% | |
| France 50% |
| Portugal 50%
Morocco 39% |
Germany 61% | |
| Germany 34% |
| Portugal 66%
Portugal 69% |
Switzerland 31%

Soccer World Cup 2022: Qualifiers – Europe – Live Predictions

These tables show the current standings and games, as well as a forecasted final ranking in the group, estimating the outcome of future games using the current soccer ELO ratings published on eloratings.net. This is a demonstration of how actual and forecasted values can be merged into one using a single metric. Home teams are listed vertically, away teams horizontally; the intersection display either the actual score or the predicted goal difference, date of the game and home-team win probability.

Continue reading “Soccer World Cup 2022: Qualifiers – Europe – Live Predictions”

Soccer World Cup 2022: Qualifiers – South America – Live Predictions

These tables show the current standings and games, as well as a forecasted final ranking in the group, estimating the outcome of future games using the current soccer ELO ratings published on eloratings.net. This is a demonstration of how actual and forecasted values can be merged into one using a single metric. Home teams are listed vertically, away teams horizontally; the intersection display either the actual score or the predicted goal difference, date of the game and home-team win probability.

Continue reading “Soccer World Cup 2022: Qualifiers – South America – Live Predictions”

Soccer World Cup 2022: Qualifiers – South America (10 Oct ’21)

These tables show the current standings and games, as well as a forecasted final ranking in the group, estimating the outcome of future games using the current soccer ELO ratings published on eloratings.net. This is a demonstration of how actual and forecasted values can be merged into one using a single metric. Home teams are listed vertically, away teams horizontally; the intersection display either the actual score or the predicted goal difference, date of the game and home-team win probability.

Continue reading “Soccer World Cup 2022: Qualifiers – South America (10 Oct ’21)”

Soccer World Cup 2022: Qualifiers – South America (7 Oct ’21)

These tables show the current standings and games, as well as a forecasted final ranking in the group, estimating the outcome of future games using the current soccer ELO ratings published on eloratings.net. This is a demonstration of how actual and forecasted values can be merged into one using a single metric. Home teams are listed vertically, away teams horizontally; the intersection display either the actual score or the predicted goal difference, date of the game and home-team win probability.

Continue reading “Soccer World Cup 2022: Qualifiers – South America (7 Oct ’21)”

Soccer World Cup 2022: Qualifiers – Europe (8/9 Oct ’21)

These tables show the current standings and games, as well as a forecasted final ranking in the group, estimating the outcome of future games using the current soccer ELO ratings published on eloratings.net. This is a demonstration of how actual and forecasted values can be merged into one using a single metric. Home teams are listed vertically, away teams horizontally; the intersection display either the actual score or the predicted goal difference, date of the game and home-team win probability.

Continue reading “Soccer World Cup 2022: Qualifiers – Europe (8/9 Oct ’21)”

Soccer World Cup 2022: Qualifiers – Europe

These tables show the current standings and games, as well as a forecasted final ranking in the group, estimating the outcome of future games using the current soccer ELO ratings published on eloratings.net. This is a demonstration of how actual and forecasted values can be merged into one using a single metric. Home teams are listed vertically, away teams horizontally; the intersection display either the actual score or the predicted goal difference, date of the game and home-team win probability.

Continue reading “Soccer World Cup 2022: Qualifiers – Europe”