2008 US Presidential Election

On this page: State of the Election. Voting results and opinion polls. Poll closing times and countdowns.

State of the Election

3pm Sydney time; OBAMA projected to win election
Obama takes OH and with it the Presidency barring any surprises in deep blue states
Actual Vote: Called
or Polling: Likely & above
Actual Vote: Ahead or Called
or Polling: Lean or stronger
Obama/Biden365 (365)365 (365)
McCain/Palin173 (173)173 (173)

ScenarioConditionsCrucial States
Obama winObama to carryany two of PA (21), OH (20), VA (13)
Obama winObama to carryPA (21) or
OH (20)
NM (5) or
NV (5)
CO (9)
Obama winObama to carryVA (13)NM (5)NV (5)CO (9)
TieObama only carriesPA (21)NM (5)NV (5)
McCain 270EVMcCain to carryNM (5)OH (20)NV (5)VA (13)
McCain 270EVMcCain to carryVA (13)PA (21)CO (9)
All scenarioes require Obama to also win in all likely & safer states
All scenarioes require McCain to win in FL (27), IN (11), NC (15), MO (11), GA (15), AZ (10) and for some scenarioes also MT (3) and/or ND (3) plus all likely & safer states

State-Based Opinion Polls (Actual Votes will be overlaid over this table)

McCain/PalinObama/Biden
519312713214216067 311 291 278 238 224 195
Safe<—>Likely<—>Lean<—>Toss-Up<—>Lean<—>Likely<—>Safe
14%11.5%9%6.5%4%2%0%2%4%6.5%9%11.5%14%
TN (11)
KS (6)
AK (3)
NEs (2)
AL (9)
WY (3)
UT (5)
ID (4)
OK (7)
NE3 (1)
TX (34)
KY (8)
SC (8)
WV (5)
AR (6)
LA (9)
MS (6)
NE1 (1)
NE2 (1)
SD (3)
AZ (10)
MT (3)
GA (15)
MO (11)
NC (15)
FL (27)
ND (3)
IN (11)
OH (20)
VA (13)
CO (9)
NV (5)
PA (21)
NM (5)
MN (10)
NH (4)
WI (10)
ME2 (1)
WA (11)
IA (7)
MI (17)
NJ (15)
MEs (2)
ME1 (1)
OR (7)
CT (7)
MA (12)
CA (55)
DE (3)
MD (10)
RI (4)
VT (3)
IL (21)
NY (31)
HI (4)
DC (3)
Actual Vote: McCain: called   McCain: ahead   Too close to call   Obama: ahead   Obama: called  
Legend: Carried by Bush in 2004. Carried by Kerry in 2004. Electoral votes in (brackets). Weakest states on top in each column.
Maine: ME1 = Maine 1st District. ME2 = Maine 2nd District. MES = Maine State.
Nebraska: NE1 = Nebraska 1st District. NE2 = Nebraska 2nd District. NE3 = Nebraska 3rd District. NES = Nebraska State.

Sources and Resources

www.rasmussenreports.com
www.cookpolitical.com
www.pollster.com
www.gallup.com
www.realclearpolitics.com


So what happens if neither Obama nor McCain get 270 votes (not impossible): see http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7626471.stm



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